My PhD

Here it is! Please read and reflect and do email me your comments, ideas and aggravations.

Drysdale, J. (2007). Sustainable development or resource cursed? An exploration of Timor-Leste's institutional choices. PhD Thesis, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.*

The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part explores the academic and grey literature, and is dedicated to understanding the problem of the resource curse and its potential and relevance to Timor-Leste. Part Two is dedicated to the explanation and results of the empirical component of this research. You can download the thesis in its entirety (301 pages). But I encourage you to save a few trees by reading it on your computer, or alternatively print the chapters you think will be useful to you separately:
Cover Pages	This document includes the Acknowledgments, Abstract (also provided in full at the bottom of this web-page), Acronyms, Non-English Terms, Lists of Figures and the Table of Contents.
Chapter One	Introduction - This chapter provides an outline of the thesis (and each of the chapters), the research questions, the scope of the thesis, and the research contribution.
PART ONE HATENE LO'LOOS (KNOW WELL)
Chapter Two	The Challenges of Managing Natural Resource Wealth - This chapter provides an exploration of the challenges of managing natural resource wealth. The literature on the resource curse is reviewed and the relationship between institutions and resource revenue management is discussed. Throughout the evaluation a framework for understanding that relationship is developed. This framework distinguishes three possible outcomes when a state exploits its natural resource wealth; a state is either cursed, resource cursed, or enables sustainable development. Social and human capital (the ‘two caps’) are fundamental to institutional quality, and therefore fundamental to the outcome under this framework. Thus, the empirical component of the research is designed cognisant of the need to enhance participation in making decisions about petroleum revenue management.
Chapter Three	Timor-Leste's Institutional Landscape - This chapter describes Timor-Leste’s institutional landscape in terms of the framework developed in Chapter Two. Timor-Leste’s history is central to an understanding of its institutions today, and the state of its institutions today provide an indication of the potential outcomes of Timor-Leste’s natural resource revenue boom. This chapter also provides an overview of Timor-Leste’s potential petroleum wealth and illustrates the enormity of its contribution to the future of Timor-Leste as a sustainable state.
Chapter Four	Managing Timor-Leste's Petroleum Revenue - This chapter describes the Government of Timor-Leste’s plans for managing its petroleum revenue. The Petroleum Fund Law is central to the Government’s plans but it is not the only institution responsible for managing petroleum revenue. Managing Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue includes saving, spending and monitoring it. Thus, petroleum revenue management in Timor-Leste is everyone’s responsibility; the President, the Parliament, the Bureaucracy, the Courts, and civil society. This chapter provides a comprehensive analysis of the details of the Petroleum Fund Law and other mechanisms that govern the management of petroleum revenue.
PART TWO HATENE SAIDA MAK EMA NIAN HANOIN (GETTING TO KNOW WHAT PEOPLE THINK)
Chapter Five	Research Design - This chapter explains the methods for both collecting and analysing the data, and reflects on the efficacy of the chosen methods. The data comes from 28 semi-structured interviews (conducted in 2004) and 47 interviews (conducted in 2005) using multi-criteria decision analysis software called 1000minds (then called Point*Wizard). The methods were designed to elicit opinions about key decisions in managing Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue. The sample was designed to include decision-makers and people outside of government, both East Timorese and foreign advisers. The objective was to seek a broad range of opinions to broaden and illuminate the discussion about petroleum revenue management in Timor-Leste. The data is presented in three chapters which each focus on a different aspect of petroleum revenue management.
Chapter Six	Saving and Investing Timor-Leste's Petroleum Revenue - This chapter explores how participants think Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue should be saved and invested. Point*Wizard software was used to generate a ranking of which aspects of saving and investing Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue were most important to participants. The method also generated discussion themes, which include choices about Timor-Leste’s revenue potential (in terms of whether the Government uses its petroleum revenue or seeks international finance, and how soon petroleum fields should be exploited), whether expenditure of natural resource wealth is sustainable (in terms of the amount that is withdrawn from the petroleum fund), and three aspects of petroleum revenue investment (the level of risk, where revenue is invested and in what currency).
Chapter Seven	Spending Timor-Leste's Petroleum Revenue - This chapter is concerned with how participants think Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue should be spent. The semi-structured interviews generated a vision for Timor-Leste expressed by the participants and this, in turn, informed the design of the Point*Wizard research which asked participants to choose how petroleum revenue should be spent. One part of the Point*Wizard research elicited a ranking of the choice between spending on social services, infrastructure, individual payments and consumable capital. Another component of the Point*Wizard research asked participants to rank 14 budget sectors in terms of their priority to increase budget expenditure. The results of the research in this chapter provide an understanding of the links between sectors in terms of budget priorities, and the ultimate goal of sustainable development.
Chapter Eight	Timor-Leste's Petroleum Pevenue Management Challenges - This chapter draws the discussion throughout the thesis together. Further findings from the field research underpin the basis of the framework from Chapter Two. Participants’ comments about Timor-Leste’s institutions and the themes of accountability and responsibility are discussed. Social and human capital are essential to wise petroleum revenue management and, ultimately, Timor-Leste’s sustainable development. This chapter explores the ‘two caps’ in terms of their role in enhancing accountability and responsibility. Finally, this chapter looks to the way forward for Timor-Leste and highlights three aspects of petroleum revenue management that will require attention if Timor-Leste is to avoid the resource curse.
Chapter Nine	Conclusion - This chapter concludes the thesis by highlighting the contributions that the thesis has made to understanding the problem of managing natural resource wealth in Timor-Leste.
References	A list of the references referred to in the thesis
Appendices	These documents (including the Petroleum Fund Law and excerpts from interviews) are referred to in the thesis

Thesis abstract

My PhD thesis explores the institutional choices available to Timor-Leste to manage their natural resource wealth wisely and avoid the resource curse. Timor-Leste is a poor country and its challenge is to use its large per capita resource wealth to alleviate poverty and enable sustainable development. This research examines the Petroleum Fund Law, and other mechanisms to manage petroleum revenue that the Government of Timor-Leste has established. These mechanisms appear to be resilient, but remain untested. Based on field interviews in Timor-Leste, the study offers insights into the opinions of East Timorese and foreign advisers about how Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue should be managed, and how a poor country can raise the living standards of its people.

A framework that identifies human and social capital as essential to the quality of institutions is developed in this research, which proposes that the pre-condition of institutions affects the management of natural resource revenue. As a result of history (not its natural resource wealth) Timor-Leste’s productive institutions are weak and destructive institutions, such as corruption, are strong. The preferences of the research participants, identified using semi-structured interviews and multi-criteria decision analysis, revealed that what petroleum revenue is spent on is the most important petroleum revenue management decision. Further, health and education were regarded the highest spending priorities. Petroleum revenue management decisions that may affect Timor-Leste’s economic, social and political independence were also important to participants.

Timor-Leste’s sustainable development depends on continued assistance in the form of foreign advisers to address its lack of human capital. A commitment to transparency should counteract the lack of trust between government and civil society. Timor-Leste will also need to invest more in people, and recognise that the wise management of its petroleum revenue depends as much on good governance as the mechanisms designed to manage it. The people of Timor-Leste’s fierce determination to overcome the challenges they face, against all odds, may help Timor-Leste to avoid the resource curse.

* Please include all reference details when quoting text or ideas from this research.